Oh, you've been holding yer breath for this, I know.
Just going out on a limb (not) and predicting a sweep, 8 Oscars, for Brokeback Mountain.
One thing that gets overlooked with all the “controversy” is how real the straight marriages are in this movie. (That's why you should see it, Douglas.) The wives and the stresses these people go through are very believeable. Being poor, uneducated, rural, with kids really sucks, and you can see that in Heath Ledger’s marriage. It has nothing to do with his “gay” relationship on the side, it has everything to do with financial pressures and the emptiness of life in Wyoming. The whole movie really depends on those marriages.
We do have an embarrassment of riches in the best actor category this year. Hoffman is fab, but so is David Strathairn in Good Night and Good Luck. But my money is on Heath Ledger.
Jake Gyllenhaal might lose to George Clooney for best supporting actor. Jake apparently made a lot of stupid comments in interviews about how Jack and Ennis weren't "really gay" before somebody told him to shut up.
Betcha Hollywood is going to take this opportunity to send a condescending liberal message to middle America after the Reddi-whipping of the Christ movie. I predict a Brokeback sweep.
My heart votes for Paul Giamatti in Cinderella Man, but this is really just his "honor to be nominated" year. His day will come.
You can predict, and (nice touch) change your predictions as the buzz changes, here.
Memo to Cindy Sheehan: You go, girl. American historians will forget that stupid speech, and the fact that Laura Bush brought a DOG to the Capitol as her personal guest, but they will never forget what happened to you last night. Why do we have to live the mofo sixties all over again?